Understanding Expected Value

Expected value (or ‘EV’) is the most important idea to understand when completing casino offers.

The EV of a casino offer is basically the average amount you would lose or gain per repetition, if you could repeat the offer an infinite number of times. If an offer has positive EV, then completing it over and over would eventually return an overall profit, whereas if an offer has negative EV, then repeating it over and over would eventually return an overall loss.

This doesn’t mean that the EV of an offer is the amount you’ll win or lose from it each time. You might complete an offer with positive EV 10 times in a row and make a loss each time, but if you carried on and completed it enough times, it would eventually make an overall profit. Likewise, you might complete an offer with negative EV 10 times in a row and make a profit each time, but if you carried on you would eventually make an overall loss.

Making Money from Expected Value

EV is how casinos make their money. Playing standard casino games will always have negative EV – this is known as the ‘house edge’. You might play roulette a few times and come away with a profit, but if you place enough bets over enough time, the casino will end up winning, because the game has negative EV for players.

However, when you take advantage of positive EV bonus offers, you can turn the tables on the casinos and play them at their own game. You might make losses along the way, but if you complete enough positive EV bonus offers, you will consistently return a profit in the long run.

The key to making positive EV offers work for you is volume. As you complete more and more offers, your actual average profit per offer should eventually get closer and closer to your theoretical expected value per offer, because of an effect known as ‘the law of large numbers’.

Calculating Expected Value

Calculating the EV of a casino offer is quite complicated because there are many factors involved. EV is significantly affected by things like stake size and game variance. There are some simplified EV formulas around that purport to calculate the expected value of casino offers, but you should be cautious about these because they omit a number of significant factors.

Rather than deal with complicated mathematics, we recommend using the Casino Cruncher to work out the estimated value of an offer. This simulates completing the offer thousands of times and generates real-life values from the simulations.

Top Casino Signup Offers

Dunder Casino

Dunder Casino - Deposit £100, Get £100 Bonus & 100 Free Spins

Minimum deposit: £20. 20 spins in Book of Dead on reg. 100% bonus up to £100 and 100 bonus spins. First 50 bonus spins credited on deposit, Second 50 bonus spins credited the following day. Valid on first deposit only. Wagering on reload bonus: 60x. Wagering on bonus spins: 30x. Wagering must be completed within 30 days. Max bonus bet £5. Bonus is valid for a total of 21 days. Game weighting and standard bonus terms apply.

🎲 HIGH RISK VIEW OFFER * terms apply

Rizk - Deposit £50, Get £50 Bonus

New customers old. Min. £10 dep. 100% up to £50 in Bonus. Neteller/Skrill excl. Max. bonus £50. Wagering 40x on bonus about within 30 days. Bonus max. bet: £5. Spins paid 10/day on Book of Dead and valid for 24 hours. Game weighting and T&Cs apply.

🎲 MEDIUM RISK VIEW OFFER * terms apply

RedBet - Deposit £100, Get £100 Bonus

18+. Minimum deposit £20. Max £2 bonus bet per spins. 35 times wagering applied to bonus funds and winnings from bonus spins. Wagering requirements must be completed within 30 days. Additional terms and conditions apply, please see below.

🎲 MEDIUM RISK VIEW OFFER * terms apply

MrGreen - Deposit £100, Get £100 Bonus

T&Cs apply. New players only. Min. deposit £20. 35x wagering req. 18+. gambleaware.org

🎲 HIGH RISK VIEW OFFER * terms apply

PlayOJO - Deposit £10, Get 50 Free Spins

First time depositors only. Min. deposit £10. Maximum amount of Free Spins is 50. Free Spins valued at £0.10 per spin. Excluding new players in Northern Ireland. OJO's Reward and Game Play Policy Applies. Read now.

🎲 LOW RISK VIEW OFFER * terms apply
  • Name *
    Email Address *
    Question *
I like to have a bet at the weekends. Yesbets is a great resource for helping me find all the latest offers from bookmakers. They’ve helped me grab plenty of free bets over the years. Jin
Yesbets really helps me get the most from my betting. Their guides on Cheltenham and Ascot ensure I never miss an offer from the bookies. I grabbed over £400 for Cheltenham and helped me come out a winner. James
It’s great to have a site that compiles all the best offers in one place. Not just the signup stuff from bookmakers, but promotions for accounts I already have. Yesbets is my first port of call before I have a bet. Chris
Yesbets takes the hard work out of finding free bets. Not only does it show the best free bets from the big boys you’d expect, but also the bets from the scores of smaller bookies that want a piece of the pie. Need all the free bets you can stomach? You’re in the right place at Yesbets. Tibbs